Orientation - Day 1

Washington, DC - The program kicks off with a welcome from Justin Gibbons, CDS program officer for the Fellowship. Then the introductions.

Nathan - a very widely traveled journalist.

Hans - a Peace Corps volunteer in Kyrgizia.

Josh - a journalist/editor who has lived in Central Asia for 7 years.

Jim - health issues specialist.

Rachel - historic and art preservation specialist.

Byron - an attorney interested in oil and gas.

Wylie - investment banker interested in gas and oil.

Jeff - an attorney interested in intellectual property issues.

Amanda - specialist in russia and far east, interested in corporate governance.

Me - shlub.

Another welcome from Svetlana Smirnova the Director of Corporate Communications with Alfa Bank. She details the banks vision, and how the Fellowship fits with that goal. Building institutions and frameworks for development and understanding. We talk a bit more about the program from the conceptual level - big picture thinking, not too much in the way of specifics at this point.

Our first speaker of the day is Marshall Goldman - the noted Russia specialist and author of numerous books. He laid out a bit of the political scenario in Russia today, his impressions of recent events, and his analysis of what it all means. He's a bit of a Russia cynic at this point - and is worried that things like the YUKOS scandal are simply the opening salvos of a massive power grab by Putin's unrestrained KGB henchmen. He posited that slowing oil output growth is a function of decelerating western investment in the Russian oil industry. I don't think its that clear. Global oil output is peaking, if it hasn't already. The simple fact is that the easy gains in boosting Russian output have been made. In wall street speak, we'd say that they already got all the low hanging fruit, and the first derivative is negative. I asked if Putin has any sort of vision of a "commanding heights" model of economy. Goldman thinks no - no pretensions to a European model. Just lusting after money.

A brief lunch, and then we headed off to Capitol Hill. (It's a shame what an armed camp Washington has become. ) Into the massive south office building, and walk for what seems like miles to Congressman Curt Weldon's office. He greeted us all in Russian, and ushered us into his office. Almost enough seats for all - but not quite. There would have been, but he's been in office for 20 years - the accumulated gifts and mementos from constituents covers every surface and cascades from bookshelves and cabinets. Rep. Weldon is the self-styled Russia expert in Congress, and was very interested to hear what our program was going to do. Then he launched into a history of US - Russian relations during which he became more and more animated. In his view, we've made critical mistakes and alienated people when we had a chance to bring them closely into our confidence and orbit. He backed it up with chapter and verse of mistakes over the past 12 years. Then he talked about his legislative agenda to help set things right. A lot of it makes sense, and isn't too controversial. It's brilliant - and he'll be the first to tell you.

After about an hour, we pack back up for the hotel. The afternoon session is with Keith Darden, professor of russian political economy at Yale. He detailed the interlocking nature of the informal and formal power structures in Russia with discussions about transparency and unwritten rules. Basically, his theory is that the country is held together by corruption and the threat of prosecution. The "contract" that the elites make is that you're free to get your piece of the action, kick a percentage upstairs, don't get greedy, and don't ever rock the boat. The administrative uses blackmail to coerce action - and to remove troublemakers in worst case scenarios. The result is that the best functioning beaurocracy is the security service.
During his talk, he mentioned how Russia's "transparency" score is on par with Zimbabwe. I asked how Direct Foreign Investment tracks with those ranks ex China. He remarked that he didn't think it did track and used Nigeria as support - low transparency, but high foreign investment. Ahh, I responded, Nigeria is all oil investment. Control for that, though, and I bet it does track closely. He didn't really agree.

Back on the road after that to the Russian Embassy. Its a huge complex of buildings, and really quite beautiful. The main reception building is absolutely oppulent. Marble, grand stair cases, and a ballroom that was positively cavernous. Enormous chandeliers, huge Tsereteli murals. Small halls off of that one were like european salons - silk covered walls and soaring ceilings, delicate sitting areas. Throughout, the building was populated with outstanding works of art. Sculptures, busts, and paintings. One whole room was Palekh panels. My favorite was a winter blizzard scene that only upon closer examination revealed a beautiful white cathedral. This being the Russian embassy, there were alot of winter scenes.

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We sat down to tea with the Ambassador at a table for about 20. He warmly welcomed us to Russia, and also into its heart and spirit. Then we each introduced ourselves to him, and asked him questions. Much of the discussion centered on Russia's image in the American press. He was quite irate about the Washington Post in particular, and didn't have kind words for their vision of world relations. Very warm conversation, then a group photo in the ballroom.

Back to the hotel. I split off for dinner with Josh, Byron, and Hans. We had Thai, and sat in the restaurant talking and getting to know each other for several hours. Really nice guys. Great experiences all over the world. I found the stories about central asian attitudes toward prostitution to be the most entertaining. But that's just me.