High Stakes Poker
I had the Fellows over for poker night on Friday. We played for kopeks. There are 100 kopeks to the Ruble, and about 30 rubles to the US Dollar. Lest we forgot ourselves and the betting get too heated, we instituted a 10 kopek limit.
That is to say, that we played for money in increments of $0.0003, or 3/100ths of a cent. With an upper limit of $0.003, or 3/10ths of a cent.
We spent about 300 rubles (or $10) on beer. When compared to the high-stakes wagering, I guess that sort of lays bare the real purpose of the evening.
I don’t know why, but poker got me thinking about capital flows and foreign direct investment. Maybe because at one point my huge pile of shiny kopeks got me to thinking about what I was going to do with all my winnings. Never mind that the entirely of my bankroll wasn’t enough to buy a bag of the pretzels we were munching on – even in Russia the kopek is largely worthless - I was spinning the wheels of international high finance all the same.
That is to say, that we played for money in increments of $0.0003, or 3/100ths of a cent. With an upper limit of $0.003, or 3/10ths of a cent.
We spent about 300 rubles (or $10) on beer. When compared to the high-stakes wagering, I guess that sort of lays bare the real purpose of the evening.
I don’t know why, but poker got me thinking about capital flows and foreign direct investment. Maybe because at one point my huge pile of shiny kopeks got me to thinking about what I was going to do with all my winnings. Never mind that the entirely of my bankroll wasn’t enough to buy a bag of the pretzels we were munching on – even in Russia the kopek is largely worthless - I was spinning the wheels of international high finance all the same.
(dollars in billions, 1st half 2005 v. 1st half 2004)
FDI $9.3 v. $4.5
Capital Inflows $26.4 v. $14.1
Capital Outflows $32 v. $25.4
Here’s the positive. Despite YUKOS and all those scares about re-nationalization of the economy, foreign direct investment still managed to post a healthy 100% gain y-o-y. And capital inflows (from the private sector) surged 87%. Capital outflows, meanwhile posted a much lower growth rate indicating that more money stayed in the domestic economy.
Here’s the negative. The impressive rise in FDI puts Russia on the international list of nations somewhere around Vietnam. Private sector capital inflows are paltry for a country with 140 million people, and are still eclipsed by capital outflows. There’s little confidence in sending money to Russia, or keeping it there once it gets made.
I guess that's Russia in general right now; shaky but getting better all the time. Oil prices are certainly dealing the country some strong hands. But all good gamblers should be ready to leave the table at any time as soon as their luck turns - for me, that means taking all my kopeks and sending them to Cyprus.
Here’s the positive. Despite YUKOS and all those scares about re-nationalization of the economy, foreign direct investment still managed to post a healthy 100% gain y-o-y. And capital inflows (from the private sector) surged 87%. Capital outflows, meanwhile posted a much lower growth rate indicating that more money stayed in the domestic economy.
Here’s the negative. The impressive rise in FDI puts Russia on the international list of nations somewhere around Vietnam. Private sector capital inflows are paltry for a country with 140 million people, and are still eclipsed by capital outflows. There’s little confidence in sending money to Russia, or keeping it there once it gets made.
I guess that's Russia in general right now; shaky but getting better all the time. Oil prices are certainly dealing the country some strong hands. But all good gamblers should be ready to leave the table at any time as soon as their luck turns - for me, that means taking all my kopeks and sending them to Cyprus.
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