Stomping on Eggshells

Only today have the office staff gotten around to removing all the balloons from our holiday celebration last week. The normal sounds of the office are punctuated with the distant dull popping of half-deflated helium balloons being jabbed with scissors. Closer to the end of the day, once can expect to hear high-pitched squealing from someone who has inhaled the gas and changed his or her voice. In either case, though, neither sound is loud enough to cover my most recent enormous gaffe.

The investment team was chatting around the trading desk the other day. One portfolio manager was giving his opinion on the direction of the market for the rest of the year. He cited the synchronized tightening cycle in major economies around the world. Then, he listed them all as he read from a computer screen – US, Japan, European Central Bank, and Botswana. The inclusion of Botswana got a hearty laugh from everyone on the desk. “Is it standard practice in the US,” one manager jokingly asked me, “to closely monitor Botswana for evidence of major international financial trends?”

“Sure, it is”, I said, laughing. “After all, don’t they hold the chairmanship of the G8 this year?”

Silence.

Of course, Russia is the chair of the G8 this year. In the eyes of my shocked colleagues, the American guy had just equated their glorious homeland with a third-world country they no doubt think is full of cannibals and/or headhunters.

“Ahhh,” Alex said gravely, “I see your humor. But there’s a big difference - we have nuclear weapons.”

I protested strenuously that I was making a joke about Botswana, not a joke at the expense of Russia. Really – you’ve got to believe me, fellas! They all swore they wouldn’t take offense at my comments, but that effectively ended the coffee klatch for that day.

Russians are very proud of their history and culture. Rightly so, in my opinion; there are stunningly beautiful and ancient things here. But Russia is also a country that radically transformed itself and became a modern powerhouse in many ways – and its technological competence and achievements are still a source of pride for every citizen.

All these things searched for relevance in the 1990’s when the country couldn’t afford basic necessities let alone a space program, a nuclear arsenal and a huge military. During that time, every institution in the country had to prove its relevance and contribution to the essence of the nation. They kept the space program, and the nuclear arsenal, and the military, all in an effort to show that this country was still a serious power.

They’ve come a long way from the days of mourning the fallen empire. It was a humiliating experience to gain, maintain, and lose superpower status in only a couple of generations. That loss resulted in a sense of insecurity that’s only now beginning to fade as it is replaced by Russia’s re-emergence on the world scene. In my opinion, recent moves in Iran and the Middle East are really only efforts to bring that internal search for relevance to its broader role in the world.

Official Washington, of course, is in full apoplexy mode over the re-emergence of a power in the east that may well do unpopular things and think for itself. But looking at things from the inside out, I contend that its safer to have a New Russia looking for a new role in the world than a wounded post-Soviet Russia looking to recapture its past glories.